Deep Analysis of the Peace Agreement Between the Philippine Government and Islamic Liberators: Long-term Impacts on Southeast Asian Security

Introduction: The Dawn and Trials After a Long Struggle

In the rugged mountains and vast plains of Mindanao in the southern Philippines, the struggle of the Muslim Ummah for self-determination and dignity has persisted for centuries. As of February 2026, standing at a new historical starting point, we are not only looking back at the landmark Comprehensive Agreement on the Bangsamoro (CAB) but also examining the resilience of this peace process under heavy challenges. For the global Muslim community, the autonomy of the Bangsamoro is not just a geopolitical shift; it is a vivid manifestation of justice (Adl) overcoming oppression and the practice of Islamic values within a modern governance framework. However, with the first parliamentary elections—originally scheduled for 2025—postponed again to September 2026 [Source](https://www.abs-cbn.com/news/2026/2/25/bill-resetting-barmm-polls-moves-forward-at-the-senate-1721), this peace covenant is facing its most severe test since its signing.

A Covenant of History: From Armed Resistance to Political Jihad

The Bangsamoro struggle is rooted in resistance against colonialism and historical injustice. From Spanish colonizers to the subsequent central government, the Moro people have always guarded their faith and land. Under the leadership of the late Chairman Hashim Salamat, the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) defined this struggle as a form of "Jihad," the core of which was not merely force, but the establishment of a society capable of practicing Islamic rule of law and social justice [Source](https://www.researchgate.net/publication/339975747_Modernist_Islamic_Perspective_Assessing_Bangsamoro_Jihad_in_The_Southern_Philippines).

The signing of the Comprehensive Agreement in 2014 and the subsequent passage of the Bangsamoro Organic Law (BOL) in 2018 marked a transition from the "Lesser Jihad" (armed struggle) to the "Greater Jihad" (self-improvement and social construction). The establishment of the Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (BARMM) in 2019 was the institutionalized result of this transition. For Muslims in Southeast Asia, this proved that achieving high-level autonomy through consultation (Shura) while respecting national sovereignty is a viable path.

The 2026 Political Standoff: A Game of Integrity and Power

As of February 2026, the peace process has entered a phase described as a "period of fog." The first Bangsamoro parliamentary elections, originally set for May 2025, have been repeatedly delayed due to legal disputes, including the Supreme Court's ruling to exclude Sulu Province from the autonomous region and issues regarding redistricting [Source](https://www.justsecurity.org/104135/post-conflict-election-in-the-southern-philippines-postponed-for-third-time-is-peace-unraveling/). On February 25, 2026, the Philippine Senate passed a bill on second reading to postpone the elections to September 14, 2026 [Source](https://www.abs-cbn.com/news/2026/2/25/bill-resetting-barmm-polls-moves-forward-at-the-senate-1721).

From a Muslim perspective, these constant delays are not just administrative setbacks but an erosion of the peace covenant (Ahd). The MILF leadership reaffirmed at a gathering at Camp Darapanan on February 16, 2026, that the full implementation of the peace agreement is non-negotiable [Source](https://www.yenisafak.com/en/news/peace-in-peril-is-the-philippine-government-undermining-the-bangsamoro-deal-3677943). Manila's unilateral replacement of the interim Chief Minister and interventions in the transitional government structure have sparked deep suspicion within the Muslim community regarding the central government's sincerity. This asymmetry of power is testing the patience and wisdom of Moro leaders.

Stagnation of the Normalization Process: Concerns Over a Security Vacuum

A core pillar of the peace agreement is "Normalization," which includes the decommissioning, mobilization, and reintegration (DDR) of MILF combatants. However, by early 2026, this process was described as being in a "comatose state" [Source](https://www.inquirer.net/445678/watchdogs-warn-of-collapse-of-bangsamoro-peace-process/). Due to uncertainty surrounding the political transition, the final phase of decommissioning for approximately 14,000 combatants has effectively stalled.

This stagnation brings serious security risks. In the absence of effective economic alternatives and political guarantees, the circulation of illegal weapons among the populace has increased rather than decreased. More concerning is that extremist forces (such as remnants linked to ISIS) are attempting to exploit this frustration for infiltration. For the Southeast Asian Muslim world, the stability of Bangsamoro is a solid fortress against extremist ideologies (Fitna). If the peace agreement collapses, not only will the southern Philippines return to war, but Muslim communities across the region could face the threat of radicalization [Source](https://muslimnetwork.tv/exclusive-interview-peace-monitor-warns-stalled-bangsamoro-process-could-fuel-isis-activity/).

Southeast Asian Security Landscape: Collaboration Among Muslim Brother Nations

The Bangsamoro peace process has never been a purely internal Philippine affair; it is a vital component of Southeast Asian Muslim geopolitics. With Malaysia as a long-term mediator, Indonesia as an observer, and the continuous attention of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC), a "regional security net" has been formed.

1. Cornerstone of Counter-terrorism: A successful BARMM can eradicate the soil for extremism at its roots through Islamic education (Madaris) and community governance. The situation in 2026 shows that regional intelligence sharing and counter-terrorism cooperation rely heavily on the political stability of Bangsamoro.
2. Vision for Economic Prosperity: With the advancement of the BIMP-EAGA (Brunei-Indonesia-Malaysia-Philippines East ASEAN Growth Area), the Muslim regions of Mindanao are seen as a trade hub connecting Sabah, Malaysia, and North Sulawesi, Indonesia. The implementation of the peace agreement will release the economic potential of this region, improving the living standards of the Ummah.
3. A Model for Identity: Bangsamoro's attempt to retain an Islamic identity within a secular state framework provides valuable experience for other Muslim minority groups, such as those in Southern Thailand [Source](https://www.sitesofconscience.org/a-history-of-struggle-for-peace-of-the-bangsamoro/).

Governance Challenges: Balancing Islamic Values and Modern Politics

During the transition, the MILF-led Bangsamoro Transition Authority (BTA) has strived to integrate Islamic principles into governance. For example, establishing a dual-track justice system where Shari'ah Courts run parallel to civil law, and promoting financial and educational reforms compliant with Islamic teachings [Source](https://www.newmandala.org/how-bangsamoros-political-transition-got-stuck/). This attempt aims to prove that Islamic values and democratic participation (Shura) are not contradictory but can provide a moral antidote to corruption and inefficient governance.

However, internal factionalism and obstruction from traditional political dynasties persist. The political turmoil of early 2026 reflects the growing pains of transitioning from a revolutionary organization to a governing party. The Muslim community calls on the leadership to remain united and uphold the Islamic core of governance—justice, equality, and consultation—to avoid falling into the traps of secular power and greed [Source](https://addu.edu.ph/islam-and-democracy-in-the-bangsamoro/).

Conclusion: An Opportunity for Justice That Cannot Be Missed

The Bangsamoro peace agreement is more than just a document; it is an opportunity for justice bought with the blood of hundreds of thousands of martyrs and the collective desire of Southeast Asian Muslims for a peaceful life. While the political deadlock of 2026 is severe, it is not insurmountable. The Philippine government must realize that any betrayal of the agreement will come at a heavy security cost; meanwhile, the MILF must demonstrate excellence and inclusivity in governance while standing firm on its principles.

As members of the global Muslim community, we should continue to support the legitimate aspirations of our Bangsamoro brothers and monitor the implementation of every clause of the peace agreement. The realization of justice may be delayed, but it must never be denied. The success of Bangsamoro will be a glorious chapter in the 21st-century pursuit of peace and dignity for the entire Southeast Asian region and the global Muslim world.

--- References:

• [ABS-CBN News: Bill resetting BARMM polls moves forward at the Senate (2026-02-25)](https://www.abs-cbn.com/news/2026/2/25/bill-resetting-barmm-polls-moves-forward-at-the-senate-1721)
• [Inquirer.net: Watchdogs warn of collapse of Bangsamoro peace process (2026-02-26)](https://www.inquirer.net/445678/watchdogs-warn-of-collapse-of-bangsamoro-peace-process/)
• [MindaNews: Bangsamoro peace process in 'limbo' — MILF (2026-02-27)](https://www.mindanews.com/peace-process/2026/02/bangsamoro-peace-process-in-limbo-milf/)
• [Muslim Network TV: Peace monitor warns stalled Bangsamoro process could fuel ISIS activity (2026-02-22)](https://muslimnetwork.tv/exclusive-interview-peace-monitor-warns-stalled-bangsamoro-process-could-fuel-isis-activity/)
• [Yeni Safak: Peace in Peril: Is the Philippine Government Undermining the Bangsamoro Deal? (2026-02-18)](https://www.yenisafak.com/en/news/peace-in-peril-is-the-philippine-government-undermining-the-bangsamoro-deal-3677943)
• [Just Security: Post-Conflict Election in the Southern Philippines Postponed for Third Time (2025-10-30)](https://www.justsecurity.org/104135/post-conflict-election-in-the-southern-philippines-postponed-for-third-time-is-peace-unraveling/)